My Slogs

Friday, November 11, 2005

Finance pundits - Why I dont endorse?

A snippet from a article posted in Hindu around Nov 10th 2005. My comments after that.
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My strong recommendation dear friends is that you purchase your dream house outside Bangalore. These builders just want to make good and fast money at your cost by inflating prices. Its better to hold your money if you really really want to buy a house in Bangalore else you will be losing your hard earned money to the bubble just like how investors in the stock market enter the market when its already inflated and then end up at a loss buying shares at a higher price. Always remember that - "Patience is a Virtue". Kindly guide your friends as well so that they do not suffer losses.
- P.N. Agarwal
** The author of this article is a renowned financial advisor. He writes for various editorials like The Times, The Hindu etc.
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My comments
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Just a thought, spending a decade in the financial industry.. NEVER listen to these so call pundits. There are a zillion contrarian opinions out in the market exactly opposite to the one voiced below. That's the beauty of market economy where the market forces decide the price rather than the pundits. But if someone is trying to gamble, then Gambling is always risky.

From individual perspective, I believe it comes down to what you think it is for YOU based on the market forces and ask real hard and honest questions to evaluate YOUR risk capacity. For example:

1. Why am I buying this property? Is it for investment, personal, career , emotional etc.
2. If Investment then what's the planned horizon?
3. Are you putting all your savings into this one bucket?
4. Will I still financially survive if I have to sell for whatever reason and the price has gone down.?
etc

Also keep in view the global changes happening with regard to globalization, India's economy which is growing and try to imagine 5 to 10 years from now.

Currently the approx :
Price of apartments = Land Value + Cost of Construction + Profits + Govt fees.

So, here the only Land value and Profits are huge variables. Cost of Construction , by and large is fixed and it will only go up (note china's appetite & middle east for oil)

My thinking is that author is just referring to people who are looking for investments and have a choice. There is some common sense truth to the article. His blind recommendation to purchase outside Bangalore sounds very logical (most laymen like you and me think this way) , but not based on Facts. Remember the obvious a PRICE = function( What someone is willing to BUY for & What someone is willing to SELL for) which decides whether its a seller market or buyers market.

So, if everyone goes outside Bangalore to BUY, Then if : Num or buyers > Num of sellers will lead to hike is Price.

Bottom line: Its what you think. Collectively could become what Market Thinks..